• Document: Exane BNP Paribas Building Materials & Infrastructures
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Equities Exane BNP Paribas Building Materials & Infrastructures XX Congress FICEM-APCAC World Cement markets trends “From stimuli support to austerity measures ?” Exane BNP Paribas‟s new Scenario for 2010-2011 Sevilla, October 2010 (Internal use only) construction@exanebnpparibas.com Arnaud Pinatel +44 207 039 94 67 arnaud.pinatel@exanebnpparibas.com Yassine Touahri +44 207 039 95 23 yassine.touahri@exanebnpparibas.com European Building Materials and Infrastructure team Equities 2 Arnaud Pinatel (London):  arnaud.pinatel@exanebnpparibas.com  +44 207 039 94 67 Arnaud Pinatel, 44, graduated with a degree in Economics from the Sorbonne University in Paris and went on to gain the French SFAF qualification (French financial analysts’ association). Arnaud began his career at Group Ciments Vicat (1992-1997) where he worked first as a financial controller and later as a strategic assistant to the Chairman and CEO of the Group. In 1997, he moved to Oddo Equities in Paris as an equity analyst covering the Building Materials sector on a Pan-European basis. Arnaud joined BNP Paribas in London in July 2001 and heads the European Building Materials and Construction team at Exane BNP Paribas. Su Zhang (London):  su.zhang@exanebnpparibas.com  + 44 207 039 94 18 Su Zhang, 33, received his B.Econ from Fudan University, Shanghai, an MBA from HEC, Paris, and an MSc in Accounting and Finance from the London School of Economics. He started his professional career at PricewaterhouseCoopers as an auditor and at Standard Chartered Bank as a credit analyst. He joined Exane BNP Paribas’s Construction and Metals and Mining teams in January 2007. Yassine Touahri (London):  yassine.touahri@exanebnpparibas.com  + 44 207 039 95 23 Yassine Touahri, 26, received his MSc in Management from Grenoble’s Ecole de Management in 2008 and spent one year studying at the Warwick Business School in 2006/2007. In 2006, Yassine worked in Saint-Gobain’s investor relations department and joined Exane’s Building Materials and Construction team in August 2007. Nicolas Mora (London):  nicolas.mora@exanebnpparibas.com  +44 207 039 95 38 Nicolas Mora, 32, graduated from ESSEC in Paris in 2002. He began his career at Societe Generale in London, as an equity research analyst covering UK Food Retail, and then joined the Hedge Fund Group within Societe Generale, as an analyst on Merger Arbitrage and Special Situations. In 2006, he moved to Ecofin, a London-based Utilities and Infrastructure hedge fund, as a European analyst. Nicolas joined Exane's Building Materials & Infrastructure team in June 2009, with a focus on Infrastructure and Construction stocks. Stanislas Coquebert (London):  stanislas.coquebert@exanebnpparibas.com  +44 207 039 94 14 Stanislas Coquebert, 26, graduated from HEC Paris in 2007 with a specialization in Macroeconomics. After working in audit in Paris at PricewaterhouseCoopers and in M&A in London at UBS, Stanislas joined Exane BNP Paribas as a telecom operators analyst. He joined the Building Materials and Construction team in 2009 with a focus on Infrastructure and Construction stocks. Summary Equities 3 What happened in 2010 ? - Cement volume declined more than we thought initially in mature markets - Growth was stronger in emerging markets Our scenario for Construction markets in 2011 - Residential - Non Residential - Infrastructure Our scenario for cement volume in 2011 What scenario for cement prices in 2010-2011 ? Two main challenges exist after 2 to 3 years of downturn Conclusion We presented one year ago a scenario of slight volume improvement … Scenario presented at the FICEM-APAC congress in Bogota Colombia - USA : 1st step of recovery expected driven by infrastructure & stimulus package - Western Europe: could bottom out, except in Spain & Germany - Eastern Europe : continuing weakness Equities - Latam :better trends , especially in Brazil - Asia & MENA :continuing growth 4 November 2009 SCENARIO for Cement Volume in 2010e : +3 to +4%e excl. China; +6%e incl. China …which was too optimistic for mature ma

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